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 Famous for Not Complaining
Posts: 8848
     
Location: Broxton, Ga | Eventually, he will get p*ffed off and run as a "third party" candidate and hand the Presidency to his "friend", Hillary, much like the third party candidate, Ross Perot, did for Bill.....JMO.
Well a 3rd party sure didn't hurt the GOP last 2 elections..........they screwed that up all by themselves..........
I found this........since I have always wondered........too did Perot cost Bush the election.......this appears to say not....some say it was those famous words "read my lips no new taxes".....
Now, let’s briefly consider the 1992 exit poll data and the actual composition of the Perot vote. According to the exit poll data, 38% of the Perot voters said they would have voted for Clinton in a two way race, 38% would have voted for Bush, 24% would not have voted. Perot won 30% of independents, 17% of Republicans, and 13% of Democrats. Put another way, of his 19% popular vote share, 8 percentage points came from independents, 6 from Republicans, and 5 from Democrats. Fully 53% of Perot’s vote came from self-defined moderates, 27% from conservatives and 20% from liberals; so about 10 points of his 19% came from self-described moderates, with 5 points coming from conservatives and 4 points from liberals. We also know from the exit polls that the Perot voters were angrier at the political system than supporters of the other candidates. Do these Perot supporters really look like voters that would have gone heavily to incumbent Bush in a two-candidate race?
It is just possible that Perot cost Bush a state here or there where Clinton squeezed out a very narrow plurality (Colorado, Montana, Ohio and Georgia come to mind as possibilities), but there is no empirical evidence that documents this that I am aware of. Even if true for all four states (a very unlikely probability), it merely reduces Clinton’s electoral vote majority from a near landslide to very comfortable.
http://www.pollingreport.com/hibbitts1202.htm
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 BHW Resident Surgeon
Posts: 25352
Location: Bastrop, Texas | I really don't believe it, because polls alone, in retrospect, do not tell the whole story. I remember the debates vividly. I remember Perot's infomercials vividly. Both Clinton and Perot campaigned aggressively against the status quo, so Bush had to defend against both. Clinton was elected with the smallest percentage of votes in modern history. It was very clear at the time that Perot's campaign was much more aligned against Bush than Clinton. I think Bush would have won if Perot hadn't run. At one point, Perot led both Clinton and Bush in the polls at on point in the summer of '92. | |
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Expert
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BHW Resident Surgeon
Posts: 25352
Location: Bastrop, Texas | Perot was right about a number of things. | |
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 Expert
Posts: 4121
Location: SE Louisiana | I want a Trump button with this on it!!!!
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Expert
Posts: 4121
Location: SE Louisiana | Vickie - 2015-08-09 1:00 PM
komet. - 2015-08-08 5:27 AM Haters gonna hate. I got news for you. Trump is going to be the next president. And he will NOT forget all the major news agencies that dissed him along the way. He will be the one that decides who gets into the White House press room and who stands out in the street dipping out of the communal news trough/pool. This will be the first time in history that ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, TIME, Washington Post and a whole bunch of others will be standing out in the street dipping out of the "pool" because they spent so much time spreading bias and hate against Trump. You don't think he can and will do it... Just keep thinking that.
OMG, what world do you live in that you think that should or could happen? Trump has no use for women outside a bedroom. Do you really support that?
I don't know what his bedroom habits are, and don't care. I remember reading about women's suffrage and I lived through the women's liberation movement. You won!!! The last thing I want to hear is some woman whine and snivel when a man talks to her the same way he would to anther man. You wanted to be equal.. You got it!!! Trump was no more rude to her than he would have been to some man that got up in his face.
Edited by komet. 2015-08-09 10:21 PM
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Famous for Not Complaining
Posts: 8848
Location: Broxton, Ga | Bear - 2015-08-08 4:14 PM
I really don't believe it, because polls alone, in retrospect, do not tell the whole story. I remember the debates vividly. I remember Perot's infomercials vividly. Both Clinton and Perot campaigned aggressively against the status quo, so Bush had to defend against both. Clinton was elected with the smallest percentage of votes in modern history. It was very clear at the time that Perot's campaign was much more aligned against Bush than Clinton. I think Bush would have won if Perot hadn't run. At one point, Perot led both Clinton and Bush in the polls at on point in the summer of '92.
Read my lips no new taxes......the stats say otherwise.....but it is a great scare tactic I must admit. But choosing between the lesser of two evils has just bout sunk the ship.
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BHW Resident Surgeon
Posts: 25352
Location: Bastrop, Texas | Yep that "read my lips" pledge definitely hurt big time.
Still, exit polls have been glaringly wrong a number of times in recent years, both here as well as in Israel. Ask BeBe.
Google it.
The liberals have promoted the notion that Perot had no effect on the '92 election.....based on retrospective polling. | |
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