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"Heck's Coming With Me"
Posts: 10794
   
Location: Kansas | Bear - 2020-04-22 3:55 PM
svincent - 2020-04-22 2:44 PM
Mighty Broke - 2020-04-20 5:59 AM
I lost an Uncle to it Friday---lose someone close to you and trust me, your whole perspective changes.
I agree - I lost my grandmother (who basically raised me as her own child) to it early last week. I am so sorry to hear of your loss.
I'm sorry for your loss. Yes, it's very real.
I believe we had to do what we did in mid March. Had we not done that, I think we could have easily lost 500,000, if not more....maybe a million. More importantly, several of our major urban areas like NYC would have been overrun, and people would have died, from lack of bed space, or ventilators, or healthcare personnel. That could have easily led to chaos, collapse, and anarchy. We'd be in even much worse shape by now. China will reap the consequences, mark my word.
Given what we knew about this novel coronavirus, Trump's calculation was dead center perfect. This man is not dumbbell, let me tell you. If this cycles back next fall, we won't do the same thing. Lots of things will be different.
Now....things are different. We have to transition back to as much normalcy as possible. We have no choice....none.
Between now and the election the Democrats will go off the rails making up fairy tales to blame Trump. They've already begun. This time he's ready for them. | |
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 BHW Resident Surgeon
Posts: 25351
Location: Bastrop, Texas | Frodo - 2020-04-22 4:01 PM
Bear - 2020-04-22 3:55 PM
svincent - 2020-04-22 2:44 PM
Mighty Broke - 2020-04-20 5:59 AM
I lost an Uncle to it Friday---lose someone close to you and trust me, your whole perspective changes.
I agree - I lost my grandmother (who basically raised me as her own child) to it early last week. I am so sorry to hear of your loss.
I'm sorry for your loss. Yes, it's very real.
I believe we had to do what we did in mid March. Had we not done that, I think we could have easily lost 500,000, if not more....maybe a million. More importantly, several of our major urban areas like NYC would have been overrun, and people would have died, from lack of bed space, or ventilators, or healthcare personnel. That could have easily led to chaos, collapse, and anarchy. We'd be in even much worse shape by now. China will reap the consequences, mark my word.
Given what we knew about this novel coronavirus, Trump's calculation was dead center perfect. This man is not dumbbell, let me tell you. If this cycles back next fall, we won't do the same thing. Lots of things will be different.
Now....things are different. We have to transition back to as much normalcy as possible. We have no choice....none.
Between now and the election the Democrats will go off the rails making up fairy tales to blame Trump. They've already begun. This time he's ready for them.
Oh for sure. They will try anything to get rid of Trump. No limits. They will come up with all sorts of schemes. They are just evil. | |
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  Champ
Posts: 19623
Location: Peg-Leg Julia Grimm | He's taking their hiding places away from them. Anyone that doesn't see what and who they are by now, has a serious commitment to stupid. | |
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BHW Resident Surgeon
Posts: 25351
Location: Bastrop, Texas | 
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 Proud to be Deplorable
Posts: 1929
| Bear - 2020-04-22 4:47 PM
We can only hope but i am afraid that he will only get some lower level managers thrown under the bus to protect the top. | |
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Champ
Posts: 19623
Location: Peg-Leg Julia Grimm | jbhoot - 2020-04-22 3:10 PM
Bear - 2020-04-22 4:47 PM
We can only hope but i am afraid that he will only get some lower level managers thrown under the bus to protect the top.
I'm more of an optimist.  | |
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 My Heart Be Happy
Posts: 9159
Location: Arkansas | svincent - 2020-04-22 2:44 PM
Mighty Broke - 2020-04-20 5:59 AM
I lost an Uncle to it Friday---lose someone close to you and trust me, your whole perspective changes.
I agree - I lost my grandmother (who basically raised me as her own child) to it early last week. I am so sorry to hear of your loss.
I'm so very sorry for your loss | |
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 Guys Just Wanna Have Fun
Posts: 5530
Location: OH | svincent - 2020-04-22 3:44 PM
Mighty Broke - 2020-04-20 5:59 AM
I lost an Uncle to it Friday---lose someone close to you and trust me, your whole perspective changes.
I agree - I lost my grandmother (who basically raised me as her own child) to it early last week. I am so sorry to hear of your loss.
Sorry for your loss also. | |
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 Living within my means
Posts: 5128
Location: Randolph, Utah | Bear - 2020-04-22 11:40 AM
JcNhEmI - 2020-04-22 9:31 AM
Bear - 2020-04-21 2:00 PM
JcNhEmI - 2020-04-21 1:50 PM
Bear - 2020-04-21 11:42 AM
JcNhEmI - 2020-04-21 11:00 AM
Palopony - 2020-04-21 9:13 AM
No reason for me to be scared I was just trying to explain what I thought he was saying. I guess I was wrong, I don't have a problem with it at all.
I could explain a million things that could have been done different, starting with just what he did and said in February after the WHO notified them China had a problem but honestly. What difference does it make now? Ordering PPE and the very best vents & tests then IMO would have been useful instead of sending PPE to China. I have seen the 69 page document they gave him on pandemics when he was sworn in, he could have paid attention to that. I don't need to look up pandemic team members for you, some are all over mainstream media.
Why don't you show me who team Trump had on this before he made one the end of January? Do you think one was not needed before we had a problem?
I think the fact that he had a 2 hour press conference and didn't even mention blocking people from coming to the US was weird. Don't say anything when on TV but go back and tweet it. Just seems strange to me and I think it's a good idea just a weird way to do it. IMO could have been done a long time ago, who would want to vacation here now? But hey we are number 1 so I guess we are finally winning.
I have no answers just think it's a worthy topic to discuss, it sure is scary to watch and very sad for our country.
Let me ask you some questions.
Do you think the country should go back to work without more testing and PPE?
YES! The country MUST get back to work. Eventually we're all going to come in contact with it, if we haven't already. The testing needs to continue but we can't hide forever waiting on more testing.
Would you go in for elective surgery right now?
Yes, if it wasn't something that required an overnight stay. A lot of hospitals are having the furlough employees because the hospitals aren't seeing the patients they were before COVID.
Do you think telling people to stay home and then have them protest is a good idea?
It is up to the Governors of each state to make the stay at home decisions, not President Trump. If we don't get people back to work and able to leave their house, we will continue to see protests.
Would you be happy to have your loved ones working with infected people for minium wage?
My sister is an RN so she is far from minimum wage, are there health care workers that only make minimum wage? Or are you talking grocery store, gas station and restaurant workers? Again, we'll come in contact with it at some point, if we haven't already.
I agree some stipulations are crazy but I see a lot of crazy people out there lacking common sense.
I can't wait for you to show me who has been watching out for pandemics for the last 3 years? I think most of the agencies you will say he cut funding for, keep that in mind.
 
I was going to reply to her blather, but you did that for me. Nice job!
She still can't say what Obozo would have done differently, or Biden, for that matter, other than Biden would have had a team in place.
As to that vaunted "Pandemic Response Team" that was relocated to other departments within the government by John Bolton, here's something that I've been wondering about. After the H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009, a nationwide shortage of masks in the national supply resulted and caused a 2- to 3-year backlog of orders for the N95 masks, the stockpile distributed about three-quarters of its inventory and didn’t build back the supply. That was in 2009-10. If that "Pandemic Response Team" was so critical, where the hel! were they? What's their excuse for not replenishing the 3/4ths of the N-95 masks? Hmmm?
I debated on responding, took me a while to hit post. . .
She's been asked MULTIPLE times to say what Obozo, and others would of done different, with no answer.
As I've said before, the President is dammed if he does and dammed if he doesn’t. No one has ever dealt with anything like this. There is nothing to compare whether Trump did it right or not.
and AGAIN, no matter what side we're all on I think we can agree we need to get the country opened back up, ASAP.
Palopony might not agree though. . .
There are some races around her in May planning on running. I'm not very optimistic but I hope I'm wrong and they get to have their races.
Bear can you explain this antibody test. How do they decide who gets an antibody test? Is it something everyone should or will get? I also seen today the FDA approved an at home test?? Did I see that right?
Sorry I missed your question. I'll try to answer it and keep it simple.
There are two basic questions we try to address:
1.) Does someone actually have Covid19? That's where the swabs come into play. One test requires a deep nasopharyngeal swab. It actually will detect the presence of the virus. The biggest problem with that is people gag, cough, and sneeze, so every time a tech obtains the swab they have to change their PPE (gowns, gloves, etc...) after each test. Those gowns are expensive and still in short supply). The newer test is just a simple swab on the inside of the nostril. People can do these at home and bring them in for testing. No PPE is needed for this. The new complete home test kits run around $120, and like everything else that has just been approved, the supply is limited at this point. It's analogous to the HPT for pregnancy. They reserve these for healthcare workers and first responders. I don't know when they'll be available for widespread use.
2.) The next category is the "antibody test". It can also be used to see if you have Covid19 infection and it can be used to determine whether or not you have immunity (from past exposure). The basic immune antibody response to a viral infection involves IgG and IgM (Ig = "immunoglobulin"). The first antibody that is produced is IgM, which is a large antibody. It appears between 3-7 days after exposure. It lasts a variable length of time, but is usually gone in 6 months. IgG appears late, like 3 weeks after exposure. It lasts a long time, up to a lifetime. If you test positive for anti-Covid19 IgM but negative for IgG, that suggests recent, or active Covid19. If you test positive for both IgM and IgG for Covid 19, you might be recovering from active infection, or still fighting it...but it's recent in either case. If you are negative for Covid19 IgM but positive for IgG, that suggests past infection and probable immunity, depending on the "titer" of IgG. Provided the titers are adequate, these are the people from whom "convalescent serum" can be obtained to give to critically ill Covid19 patients. One donor can treat 3 people. This is a great test, but production is not real fast. Donald Trump cannot sh!t these tests, just like he can't sh!t swabs, ventilators, and gowns. You have to understand that the speed at which this team got these things tested, approved, and produced is record-setting. Normally, these things would take several months, even years.
Now here's the problem. Just because you test negative on one day, doesn't mean you won't be positive a day or more later. It's like HIV testing where a test may be negative early right after exposure. Ideally, in a perfect world, you get a negative test when you have mild symptoms, and a repeat negative test two weeks later. Then you are pretty much cleared.
Thank you for answering my questions.
Is this like the flu where it'll be a different strain every time we see a spike, say in the fall or next winter? Or is that something that won't be known until it happens. The news was talking how there will be another spike in the fall.
At this point, we haven't identified any mutations, but Coronaviruses are RNA viruses, and RNA viruses are much more prone to mutation, versus DNA viruses. DNA viruses like adenovirus (one of the common cold viruses), herpesviruses (herpes and shingles), EBV, wart viruses (papilloma virus), and chicken pox virus are fairly stable. Influenza viruses are RNA viruses that are prone to mutate into different strains. There are over 200 different strains of influenza virus (both A and B). That's why flu vaccines can be "hit and miss" from one year to the next. Each year, virologists try to calculate which strains of influenza are most likely to be the greatest threat. Some years are better than others, but a rule of thumb is that the flu vaccine effectively immunizes 40-60% of flu vaccine recipients. That doesn't mean the remainder don't benefit. Most of the rest have some partial immunity, so any clinical cases of flu tend to be milder and recovery is quicker, compared to non-vaccinated. A "trivalent" vaccine protects against 2 different subtypes of influenza A, plus Influenza B.
So....I'm getting to the answer to your question. Back in 2003, SARS (which is a coronavirus closely related to Covid19) took off in the late winter/early spring. We started to feverishly work on a vaccine, but it died off completely over the summer and hadn't returned. We abandoned the very expensive SARS vaccine research and development. There's a possibility that it will die off over summer or at least calm down significantly, but the feeling now is that it will cycle back over the fall and winter. I think we will definitely see a significant decline over the summer, but I wouldn't bet against recycling back next fall. The reason is that this virus is so hardy, and we are learning that it is more prevalent than we expected a couple years ago. Antibody testing is showing a lot more people were infected with Covid19 than we thought......some estimates now say maybe up to 50 times more. If that's the case, then we are looking at a mortality risk more in line with flu. I wouldn't bet all my chips on a vaccine, because, as I was saying, RNA viruses do tend to mutate, and if that happens we may miss the mark.
So, bottom line: A vaccine may or may not be effective, IF one can even be developed, and yes, my best guess is it will re-emerge in the fall-winter.
These complete corrupt idiots like Zeke Emmanuel (the designer of ObamaCare) who say we have to keep the country shut down until we have a vaccine (for the next 1-2 years) should be ignored. He's an evil bastard who is an extreme progressive socialist-Marxist. I swear to God if I ever met him I would beat his ass to a pulp. He's pure evil. He doesn't care about anything other than extreme socialist-progressivism.
Again, thanks for answering my questions My sister works as an RN at the Wyoming State Hospital, so she's not working with the general public. They transported 2 patients in last week that are positive. I can't believe they're still transporting patients. Plus it dings the county here and not the county they came from. 3 people she worked with last Wednesday are on quarantine, but she is not. The state health said she wasn't directly exposed. She's been staying away from people as much as possible but still working. I asked her if she could get the antibody test, I'm curious if she's been exposed and has the antibody. She wasn't sure. I told my friend the other night, I'm ready to be able to go back to the bar so I can b*tch about being at the bar  | |
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