I'm neither a farmer or rancher, so I'm asking for opinions here.

A lot of people are hurting because of the tariff war with China.  How do you see things?  What's your opinion on this?  
Another question: when were some of the best years for farming and ranching, in terms of prices, profit, etc...  Why were those good years?  What happened?  Was it just a good cycle, or was there something the government did or didn't do to effect the market in a good way?

Are you optimistic that with new trade deals with the USMCA, Japan, Korea, and hopefully Great Britain and China, that things will get better?  

Some say that farmers claim they don't actually want subsidies....all they want is a "level playing field".  Do you agree?  If so, how do we get there?  What constitutes a level playing field?

Just want to get some honest input/opinion here.  

Good questions, Bear.  From what I see personnally (owner of stockers, goats) and I work for the FSA office there are variables to this question.

First, lets talk about the producers that I serve at the FSA office - some seem to be hurting for money due to the tariffs of crops between us and China. Some of the bigger producers don't seem to be affected yet.   This is where the MFP payments have come into play.   IF we have a program that pays, the prodcuers are here signing up for the programs.  They are getting crop insurance payments (depending on type of CI that they carry, lots of different options of CI), FSA payments, market price for their commodity crop.  In speaking with  loan officer, the above MFP payments have been a life saver for them and as covered their cost of living. Where their LOC  has not been maxed out or close to it, the MFP has saved them.  many do state they would prefer to have the market and not the subsidiary payments.  With the new 2018 farm bill signup will begin for the 2019/2020 year where producers will be choosing their elections  of ARC/CO or PLC for the crops. ARC/CO is based off county yield and price ; PLC is price loss coverage of crops -  payment if earned is not paid until a year after the final marketing month. So we are always paying 1 year behind.  Some crops pay, some don't.  It is complicated.  Each crop that they have established on the farms they operate has an election.

Over production in my eyes.... supply and demand - look at the world.

I hope with the USMCA the cattle market somewhat stabiizes, because it has been very violatile the past few years.  This year has been a stracht your head kinda year.  The month the processing plant burned in KS - that affected the cattle market by $10-20 cwt and that should not happen.  Period.  We should not be that vulnerable.   The packers are making way more than we are $500-600 a head - we are lucky to break even at $50 or you hope you do.  You hope you hit the market on a high day -  We need more markets and I'm glad to see that we struck a deal with japan -  when the cattle market was sky high - the cow situation was no numbers, when that market crashed, it hurt a lot of people that are still paying for it.  To buy a heifer for 3500 you would never het her paid for... 

so many variables -

The loss of cattle in the NE and Iowa during last spring will now play into the markets this coming year. 

Good post.

now with swine flu -china is loosing their pork population, and they eat a lot of pork.  however, they are buying their pork from other countries, because of the tariff currently in place with us and them... 65% I think.  In watching the market i think the pork market has stabilized but it would be a boost to our pork producers to get the China deal.

China needs to actually sign something and follow thru however.

Farm marketer/merchandiser here.  Great question and I wish more folks would ask instead of just assuming - but I expect no less from you.

The last few years have been tough, but have presented opportunities for growers who spend some time on a marketing plan and execute.  A larger producer can't afford to not have a plan.  By and large most producers will say that marketing is their weakest part of their operation.

Trade deals will help stabilize the markets, but we are entering a period of surplus vs the demand driven market we have been in - which will keep them somewhat less predictable.  

China's problems with the African Swine Flu hitting almost as soon as the trade war began really changes the hand of cards they were playing with and helped prolong it in my opinion - they didn't have as many hogs to feed and therefore didn't have the demand.  Now the pork production issues are really starting to hit home, got to feed your people if you're going to keep them in line and reasonably happy.

Oh man, I'm out of my league here!  I wasn't even sure I knew what FSA stood for.  
I do appreciate the time and effort you folks put into trying to educate me. 
To me, Ag economics is a little complicated because of so many variables and moving parts.  I feel a little lost, to be honest.  Let me try a different angle.  

Describe to me a time period when a particular market was real good....say the beef market.  Give me the rough years, and tell me what happened that paved the way for a great market.

Now do the same, except tell me of a period when the market was real bad, and give me your take as to the reason.

The most important question is this....what should our government do to optimize farm/ranching stability?

Not claiming to be an expert by any means, but Mother Nature seems to be a big player for us. The cost of feed and how much feed available is the driver. Too much/too little rain and when. For us, the government/fsa has no real play. They may fill in a gap, but if they are filling in the gap it's not good. 

To answer your question, what sets up a great year(s) is hard for me to answer. It seems the stars have to align for a balance between feed and cattle cost.  When they are you had better manage your money well.  For us, we are fairly even from year to year barring a drought, a packing plant catches fire, mad cow, or some other event takes place.

We always follow what corn is doing. Farmers around here either seem to be filthy rich or going broke. 

Getting loans through the fsa has been the biggest help to us. The terms are so much better than regular bank land notes.  It had still better pencil or you will be in trouble. It's not a gimme by any means. Beyond that, I don't know what other people think. 

Interesting read I hope more will jump on this thread.

i wish the  gal from arkansa  would pop on they were a big operation in arkansa . iknow my uncle ran a smal farm in mo that they varied crops cattle hogs chickens and did well but they died  and jimmy when into hogs big time and bottom dropped out and they dam near lost farm  buty for his sisters bailed him out.    i hear about the dairy farms and chicken farms here in the south and its a struggle but no real knowledge

great subject bear

also i read where foregin countries are buyingh land and sending the produce back to their countries. i also read  that cattle the beef you purchase

in store does not have to show orgin of country? i only eat deer and chicken so..

What is the current status of "country of origin" labeling?  I know the law made sense, but my understanding is that some of it was repealed under Obama for some products because the WTO dictated it to us, basically.  If that's true, it really chaps my ass.  If I can help it, I'll go out of my way to buy food raised in the US.  I sure as hell don't want to buy any meat from China. They feed poop to fish.  
I'm trying to figure out government's best role in supporting farming and ranching without being too medlesome.  Seems to me the best approach is to do whatever it takes to promote a level playing field, but I also know that the subject is very complicated and dynamic.  That's why I'm asking for opinions and experiences.  
Yesterday I got into it on FB with a friend who thinks Trump is the devil.  She claims Trump is screwing over farmers and ranchers and suicide is on the rise because of him.  Personally, I think Trump's approach on trade is long overdue and the tariffs are a painful but necessary tool to leverage more fair trade, which is long overdue.  He's the only one willing to take the political hit for imposing tariffs.Seems to me it's paying off.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/press-release/usda-amends-country-origin-labeling-requirements-final-rule-repeals-beef-and-pork

i google and found this i read somewhere chicken had to have country of orgin  and its on mine that i buy  cattle /beef  if direct from country to retail it has to show orging but if its a carass process and cut in usa no its does not  as they figure usda inpected. at least thats how i understand it

u would think wwith the past history of far east  country no one would buy any food dog treats etc from them

i try not to buy anything not in usa but banana that tough i love banana

About 2015 cattle were insanely high. Nice steer calves brought $1200-1500+. We ranch and my husband hauled quite a few cattle back then. The insurance on his truck would have barely covered the load had he had an accident. Not sure why they were so high. Steer calves averaged $875 in my area this fall. 

In all honesty, talking with local farmers. If feed is high, cattle are low and vice versa.. Drought, excessive rain that destroys pasture and or crops plays its part as well.

OK, I'd like to know why they exempt beef and pork (including ground beef and pork) from those COOL regulations.  Can someone give me the lowdown on this?  The government does a lot of worthless junk regulation, but it only seems sensible to me that I know where my meat was raised.  I don't know about you, but I don't want to eat meat grown outside of North America.  How the hell do you know that ground pork from Asia is really ground pork and not cat or dog meat?  Many Asian countries eat dog meat.  
Of all the BS regulations our government imposes, why did they eliminate this sensible requirement?  I do know that DNA testing has been developed to detect things like dog, snake, cat, and rat meat in "ground beef".

This doesn't make sense to me.

I think you may be talking about Three 4 Luck. . . . 

I know in our area (Southeast Arkansas) foreigners own so much land it's ridiculous.  And Bill Gates (yes, THAT Bill Gates) has been buying parcels left and right around here.  The small family farmer is almost a thing of the past.   Heartbreaking. . . 

Chandler sent me this from one of his farming websites just yesterday

That's amazing, when you consider the tariff war.

I haven't asked him what the results are several days into the poll. . . 

Probably 90 % of my clients are farmers, and overall I'd say they all still support President Trump.  The tariff wars have made them cuss a lot, but I think they still trust him to work this out.   The subsidies have been lifesavers for most of my farmers,  but it's not what they want--they want fair market prices for their crops.  Period.   Hearing our HARDWORKING farmers put down for "taking welfare" makes my blood boil.  My son is a fifth generation farmer; we have farmed everything from cattle to cotton to beans to rice to catfish.   I have prayed for Chandler to not farm, but it's his dream, been what he's wanted to do since he could speak.   Catfish farming almost put him under, but he's digging out.   I support him but also know what a hard (almost impossible) road he faces as a young/beginning farmer. . . 

I'm not a farmer or a rancher but I deal 100% in commodities. 

The last two years have been 2 of the worst years I've ever endured. 


But I still feel like something had to be done to even the playing field. 

I thought you were a garbage man.

I guess you are not very knowledgeable 

IT is my understanding that COOL is not in effect at this moment.  I wish it was.  I will have to research what happened to it.  Not on the top of my head.

Agriculture  markets - commodities due to weather, supply/demand, all plays in.  THe CME , cold storage, on hand inventory report all play into the cattle market.

cattle market is based off the corn market - when the corn mprice goes up the the price of feeders come down. (WHy; you ask; because then it costs more to feed them,) .  You have a live market and a feeder market.  all done on the CME  as the crops are too.  all traded.  You can buy puts/options (hedging) to protect your costs, but that cost money too.  and if you don't know what you are doing - you can dig yourself deeper.  

At the time the feeders were brining 1300-1500/hd - the cow inventory was down - due to the sell down of the cow/calf operators during the drought of 2011-2013.