bear question

florida  from the cdc  our pop 21993000 # deaths 4312  i did math  0.000196  is the % of death in florida  or take  the people that have it or had 295059  deaths 4312  i get 0.014  so  why the hysteria or am i looking at it wrong

First of all, I think it is very hard to calculate anything meaningful using the "number of cases" as the denominator. For one thing, the "number of cases" is probably not the ACTUAL number of people infected with Covid19.  It's misleading and confusing to many people....which is exactly why politicians are using this as a tool to promote whatever narrative they wish to pursue. I'll lay out some reasons for the confusion:

1. People instinctively think "number of cases" equals number of sick people.  That's not true. 50% of Covid19 positive people are asymptomatic, meaning they aren't actually sick.  Another 30% have minimal symptoms, like stuffy nose, mild cough, maybe a little diarrhea, etc...  

2. The CDC estimates the actual number of people carrying Covid19 to be TEN times that amount.  So if the number of Covid19 cases is reported at say 3.3 million, using CDC estimates, that number is probably around 33 million. Some other estimates put it at TWENTY times the reported number = 66 million.  If the CDC estimates (at 10 times higher) are accurate, we are looking at 2% of COVID-19 positive cases as being actually significantly ill. 

3. The false negative rate for Covid19 is as high as 20%.  That's crappy for a test that ought to be a sensitive screening test.  So you can add another 20% to the above figures.  In other words, a Covid19 test can miss 1 in 5 people tested.  A good screening test should pick up around 95% of those who have a given disease/condition.

4. Keep in mind that 80% of these people quite possibly wouldn't even go to the doctor with the mild symptoms they are experiencing were it not for fear of Covid19.  

5. The number of reported Covid19 "cases" is, in fact, a function of testing.  The President is right in that regard.  Do more tests....more "Covid19 cases" even though 80% aren't sick or minimally symptomatic.

The best way to gauge how a state is doing with Covid19 is to compare the number of deaths per 100,000 or per million.  The numerator (top number) is definite....well assuming the cause of deaths is correctly noted (A big assumption, I realize). The denominator (population) is reliable. 

Using those figures here's what I have, using round figures, in terms of Deaths from Covid19 per million:

NJ -      1778

NY -      1684

Florida -  195

Texas -    117

Georgia - 300

You can plug those numbers in for any state.  I think this is the best way to compare how states are doing with Covid19.  Now, keep in mind, those numbers may change significantly if we start seeing in those states that are seeing spikes in "Covid19 cases".  Florida, Texas, and Georgia will never come close to the numbers we've seen in NY, NJ, Mass, La, etc...  The media wants us all to have a stroke.  Oh, and one other thing....for the reasons I mentioned above, my suggestion is to not pay much attention to "case fatality rates" for the same reasons I cited above.  Same for "number recovered".  That's pretty much worthless as well.  

Don't get me wrong. Covid19 is real, and it can kill you.  The data is emerging, and it looks like the facts are constantly changing....but the deaths per million in a given state are solid numbers.

Oh, and your calculation is essentially the same as mine, except the 0.0000 stuff confuses people.  That's why I listed them as deaths per million.  More easily understood.

thanks bear. i know its real but the mass hysteria  just ... then we have these where i live that arer obnoxious ****y people.

i never knew i could be so ****ed at stupidy and sheep

I wish if they have post numbers they would only post the Hosiptalized cases & the deaths. ( But of course that wouldn't be near as scary)

The idea is to shut businesses down and tank the economy to help boost a Biden win.  Pathetic isn't it?

I think the idea seems to be ignore it and it will go away.  I guess it's working pretty well as long as you or your loved ones don't die.

I sure hope this warm weather makes it all disappear, like they said it would.

Who said that?

I wish the rest of the country would take notes from South Dakota. I seen an article today where they said they've seen no "spike" since holding 4th of July celebrations.

South Dakota is definitely doing something right.

Dr. Scott Atlas made an interesting remark which has been my opinion all along.  The reason for the surge......hordes of protesters packing the streets along with rioters and looters.  And illegals crossing at will back and forth across our borders, many with Covid.  Right now the worst of what I see is in border states and the southern part of California.  Figure it out Gov. Newsom.

I rarely post on here anywhere due to the lack of ability of some to essentially "play nice." Yet, with that being said I feel that some people only watch the number being posted and don't truly understand the severity of the situation. It is very black or white... you get it or you don't. You die or you don't. Unless you are directly in healthcare dealing with it it is hard to fathom the events that are taking place are even true. It is every bit of real! To watch these patients miserable, sad, lonely and to die that way is traumatic for the patient the family and providers as well. Yes the flu kills just as many people but we have to be aware that we know the flu! We have vaccines and diagnostic testing that takes 4 minutes to result, we know how to manage the flu and it tends to only be bad for those with underlying health concerns or the newbies! COVID is not that easy patients are either sick or they are not!  Testing doesn't come back quickly a lot of it is inconsistent. We have had many 1st time swabs next negative and reswabs be positive. Is it the effectiveness of the test? Or is it the technique?  Or is it the low viral load? Who knows!! Some people are positive with no issues but a headache but then others are dying!! Some are good and go home to self quarantine and then come back declining so rapidly that it's all hands on deck for any kind of chance of survival. Resources are limited, providers are exhausted and starting to get sick themselves. We are reusing equipment and it makes our chance of contracting it more significant. It's the fear of the unknown! Does it all warrant closures? Hell idk! But to disregard it entirely is not the answer either. I have zero political stance on it!! I just know that dealing with it in the ER at one hospital and ICU at another puts me at the front lines knowing that I never NEVER wish the chance on anyone else! We are having such an influx on positive patients that it's leaving us without any space for regular sick patients. Wearing a mask out and about is not going to keep you from contracting it it's supposed to minimize it but with thst being said the virus is aeorosalized so unless u properly wear PPE your never not at risk. So again what is the best case scenario. Hell idk!! 

I just want to say Thank You for all you do to take care of the people who have it. You have a tough job. Not just anyone can do what you do. May God Bless you & keep you safe. 

It's ridiculous that any one dies alone. That thought brings me to my knees. I don't care about contacting the **** disease, I want to be there for my loved ones. It kills such a small number of people, statically,  that no one should die alone. And also, how many would have survived if they were NOT completely isolated from their loved ones? Even if it were just a few, it would be worth it. Health care people see the worst of it, the rest of us see the ones who didn't have to go to the hospital and there in lies the difference in our perspectives, I think. I personally know of NO ONE who has been tested positive. So, my view is VERY different from yours and I am so thankful that so far that is the case for me and mine. 

GLP, We know 2 people who have tested positive. My husband works with both of them. They both have been to our home. Not recently but they have. 

Should have said it better. I know there are people testing positive, but I do not know any one PERSONALLY who has tested positive. No family or friends. We didn't stay away from each other and didn't wear masks until we had to. I have stayed away from one friend, she has had cancer and was a lung donor to her niece by marriage. I consider her a high risk. She never quit working, though. She is a dog groomer and works several days a week at a liquor store. She has not been sick, I text her all the time. My dad is 88 with emphysema and he hadn't slowed down. He is still Covid free as is my mom who is 78. But that is just MY experience. I know it's not what some others have experienced. 
The 2 you know, are they doing ok? I would like to put them in my prayers, if it would be ok. 

I know people from where I work that have come down with it.  One of the guys that works for me is coming back to work has been out a full month.  However, it went through his household and while he did not have to be admitted to the hospital it took him awhile to feel well enough to come to work.  His symptoms were mostly fatique.

I know of several that tested positive with NO symptoms at all but had been exposed.

I firmly beleive that while covid is and can be a problem, they hype has been blown up due to an election year. jmo.

Im sure this is stupid question: But can you get covid from someone with a tempature/fever like the flu or is it just in contact no matter if fever or not. 

Yes, that is possible.  It's safest to assume you can get it from asymptomatic people. 

I am SO sick and tired of this issue of people p*ssing and moaning about wearing a mask (or face covering) or whatever...... I don't care if you are Republican or Democrat or WHO you want to blame ...we should ALL be doing everything possible to get a handle on this virus that is KILLING our neighbors and our relatives..... I have had FOUR people that I know (3 were relatives) that contracted the disease early on .... TWO died .....

When I have to go to town I just wear a bandana and when going into any stores I just pull it up over my nose and when done I just pull it down, so simple, I too get tired of all the complaints they just need too get over it, I hate HATE anything on my face so I found a bandana to be the easiest for me, I too was a complainer but slowly getting over it

Edit for my spelling