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 Elite Veteran
Posts: 851
  
Location: West Texas | TXBO - 2015-12-19 12:46 PM
Tdove - 2015-12-18 6:47 PM jbhoot - 2015-12-18 5:27 PM Can one of the oil guys answer a question for me. What if the USA,Canada an Mexico formed their own cartel. Would there be enough oil reverses to compete with OPEC? Cartels are illegal in U.S. law. Here is an article supporting what I am saying. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/business/energy-environment...
You're article supports exactly what I've said. Here's a snippet:
What happened to OPEC? A central factor in the sharp price drops, analysts say, is the continuing unwillingness of OPEC, a cartel of oil producers, to intervene to stabilize markets that are widely viewed as oversupplied. Prices of OPEC’s benchmark crude oil have fallen about 50 percent since the organization declined to cut production at a 2014 meeting in Vienna.
Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador and Algeria have been pressing the cartel to cut production to firm up prices, but Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other gulf allies are refusing to do so. At the same time, Iraq is actually pumping more, and Iran is expected to become a major exporter again under the recent nuclear deal.
Saudi officials have said that if they cut production and prices go up, they will lose market share and merely benefit their competitors. They say they are willing to see oil prices go much lower, but some oil analysts think they are merely bluffing.
Yes that is exactly what I have been saying. They didn't cause it to go down but they can help it go back up. Just supports how I said you can't read very well. |
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Elite Veteran
Posts: 851
Location: West Texas | Why did it go down?
From Fortune
"The current free-fall in oil prices is drawing comparisons with the “bubble bursting” crash of 2008, although there are some key differences this time around, said Tarun Dang, managing partner with Trend-Wise Capital Management.
“While decline in demand was the key driver for the 2008 crash, the sharp drop in prices this time around is being caused by a supply glut. Continued growth in U.S. shale production and increase in non-OPEC countries oil exports have led to excess capacity,” he wrote in a note to clients."
Again, what is your involvement in the oil industry? |
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 Googly Goo
Posts: 7053
 
| Tdove - 2015-12-19 12:43 PM TXBO - 2015-12-19 12:26 PM Tdove - 2015-12-18 4:04 PM This has very little to do with OPEC. They do not control prices ....... LOL. You lose all credibility after this. Here you go, from a real expert and market watch article. "In recent years, the shale boom and increased production from the U.S. has “greatly reduced OPEC’s [ability to dominate] world oil markets,” said Charles Perry, chief executive officer of energy-consulting firm Perry Management." The fall had little to do with OPEC. They can cut production to try to help increase prices. But infighting has not allowed that. Just facts.
His statement is absolutely correct. Increased production from US has reduced their ability to dominate. That's why they want to keep crude prices low so additional production and exploration are thwarted. That does not however mean that OPEC has lost its ability to manipulate world crude prices with production levels. Here is another line from the same report you just quoted:
" Venezuela had asked the cartel to consider a coordination with non-OPEC Russia. But analysts have said that Saudi Arabia, the group’s largest oil producer, has made it clear that it will not lower output as it fights for market share."
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Googly Goo
Posts: 7053
| Tdove - 2015-12-19 12:49 PM TXBO - 2015-12-19 12:46 PM Tdove - 2015-12-18 6:47 PM jbhoot - 2015-12-18 5:27 PM Can one of the oil guys answer a question for me. What if the USA,Canada an Mexico formed their own cartel. Would there be enough oil reverses to compete with OPEC? Cartels are illegal in U.S. law. Here is an article supporting what I am saying. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/business/energy-environment... You're article supports exactly what I've said. Here's a snippet:
What happened to OPEC?
A central factor in the sharp price drops, analysts say, is the continuing unwillingness of OPEC, a cartel of oil producers, to intervene to stabilize markets that are widely viewed as oversupplied. Prices of OPEC’s benchmark crude oil have fallen about 50 percent since the organization declined to cut production at a 2014 meeting in Vienna.
Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador and Algeria have been pressing the cartel to cut production to firm up prices, but Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other gulf allies are refusing to do so. At the same time, Iraq is actually pumping more, and Iran is expected to become a major exporter again under the recent nuclear deal.
Saudi officials have said that if they cut production and prices go up, they will lose market share and merely benefit their competitors. They say they are willing to see oil prices go much lower, but some oil analysts think they are merely bluffing.
Yes that is exactly what I have been saying. They didn't cause it to go down but they can help it go back up. Just supports how I said you can't read very well.
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Googly Goo
Posts: 7053
| Tdove - 2015-12-19 12:50 PM Why did it go down? From Fortune "The current free-fall in oil prices is drawing comparisons with the “bubble bursting” crash of 2008, although there are some key differences this time around, said Tarun Dang, managing partner with Trend-Wise Capital Management. “While decline in demand was the key driver for the 2008 crash, the sharp drop in prices this time around is being caused by a supply glut. Continued growth in U.S. shale production and increase in non-OPEC countries oil exports have led to excess capacity,” he wrote in a note to clients." Again, what is your involvement in the oil industry?
I mostly agree with that statement. I have not argued that a "supply glut" is not the primary underlying factor in current crude prices. It absolutely is. My problem is with this statement of yours and I quote:
"Oil prices are a symptom or marker of a much bigger problem. OPEC has had nothing to do with this. OPEC is actually hurt worse than the US by low prices."
Every bit of that statement is absolutely 100% inaccurate.
OPEC has the power to manipulate prices well beyond what we have already seen.
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Googly Goo
Posts: 7053
| Tdove - 2015-12-19 12:50 PM Again, what is your involvement in the oil industry?
I put it in my car. |
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Elite Veteran
Posts: 851
Location: West Texas | TXBO - 2015-12-19 1:26 PM
Tdove - 2015-12-19 12:50 PM Again, what is your involvement in the oil industry?
I put it in my car.
I am MBA with an undergraduate emphasis in economics and have worked for WTG in Midland Tx as a pipeline business manager for 10 years. The ranch we work for is owned by the owner and president of Shenandoah Petroleum. I am involved with oil industry experts every day, in the largest oil producing basin in the continental U.S.
Edited by Tdove 2015-12-19 1:39 PM
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Googly Goo
Posts: 7053
| Tdove - 2015-12-19 1:34 PM TXBO - 2015-12-19 1:26 PM Tdove - 2015-12-19 12:50 PM Again, what is your involvement in the oil industry? I put it in my car. I am MBA with an undergraduate emphasis in economics and have worked for WTG in Midland Tx as a pipeline business manager for 10 years. The ranch we work for is owned by the owner and president of Shenandoah Petroleum. I am involved with oil industry experts every day, in the largest oil producing basin in the continental U.S.
Well that explains it. If you had gotten a BS or MS in Econ it would fill in a lot of what you're missing. But then again, since economics is only useful for theory and telling you why you went broke, once you already had, the MBA was probably the right choice. Otherwise, you'd probably ended up a car salesman like me instead of a pipeline manager. |
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Elite Veteran
Posts: 851
Location: West Texas | I have no idea what you are trying to say. You are quite the circle talking smart aleck, at least today. It's not very becoming. I don't appreciate it. That is okay, I am pretty secure in myself. I wish you well. |
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Googly Goo
Posts: 7053
| Tdove - 2015-12-19 2:21 PM I have no idea what you are trying to say. You are quite the circle talking smart aleck, at least today. It's not very becoming. I don't appreciate it. That is okay, I am pretty secure in myself. I wish you well.
I'm not being a smart aleck. Sorry if I hurt your feelings though.
You were the one that started measuring manhood with education and job status. I just wish you'd challenge my OPEC numbers. If they're wrong, give me the right ones. |
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Elite Veteran
Posts: 851
Location: West Texas | TXBO - 2015-12-19 2:47 PM
Tdove - 2015-12-19 2:21 PM I have no idea what you are trying to say. You are quite the circle talking smart aleck, at least today. It's not very becoming. I don't appreciate it. That is okay, I am pretty secure in myself. I wish you well.
I'm not being a smart aleck. Sorry if I hurt your feelings though.
You were the one that started measuring manhood with education and job status. I just wish you'd challenge my OPEC numbers. If they're wrong, give me the right ones.
My feelings are not hurt at all. I didn't challenge your manhood education or job status. I challenged your credibility on the subject matter. You have been nothing but a smart aleck. You act like some type of expert in the field and spout numbers that don't support or match your own argument. I doubt anyone here cares what either of us think. Bottom line is oil is down and gas is cheap. This is needed help to some and obviously hurts others. There are people in the industry in this board that have lost their job, because of this. Maybe every one celebrating the low fuel might not be all that welcomed to them. Also, the horse industry, ranching, etc has fairly strong ties to oil in many parts of the country. I just wanted to put some of that in prospective. We all would like to see lower prices than too high. It really would be helpful long term for almost everyone reading this post with higher crude prices that would stabilize at a moderate level.
I really wish I hadn't got caught up in this petty argument. I apologize to the board for so much back and forth over nothing more than my pride.
Edited by Tdove 2015-12-19 3:26 PM
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Googly Goo
Posts: 7053
| Tdove - 2015-12-19 3:09 PM TXBO - 2015-12-19 2:47 PM Tdove - 2015-12-19 2:21 PM I have no idea what you are trying to say. You are quite the circle talking smart aleck, at least today. It's not very becoming. I don't appreciate it. That is okay, I am pretty secure in myself. I wish you well. I'm not being a smart aleck. Sorry if I hurt your feelings though.
You were the one that started measuring manhood with education and job status. I just wish you'd challenge my OPEC numbers. If they're wrong, give me the right ones. ....... I really wish I hadn't got caught up in this petty argument. I apologize to the board for so much back and forth over nothing more than my pride.
Don't apologize to the board. Most people reading the thread were pulling for you. They'd love to see somebody put me in my place. Heck even I was pulling for you. |
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 BHW Resident Surgeon
Posts: 25351
Location: Bastrop, Texas | LMAO!!!! |
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Elite Veteran
Posts: 851
Location: West Texas | I waxed the floor with you sir. |
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Googly Goo
Posts: 7053
| Tdove - 2015-12-19 4:35 PM I waxed the floor with you sir. Right..... And OPEC has nothing to do with crude prices.
Edited by TXBO 2015-12-19 4:53 PM
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 Last Comedian Standing 
Posts: 10919
Location: South Texas | Buccees $1.69 diesel
Edited by snazzy 2015-12-19 4:53 PM
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 Proud to be Deplorable
Posts: 1929
| Interesting thread!!!! But I will bet oil and gas prices will go up by next year just before the election. |
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 I Prefer to Live in Fantasy Land
Posts: 64864
Location: In the Hills of Texas | snazzy - 2015-12-19 4:52 PM Buccees $1.69 diesel
Has the oilfied traffic slowed down? |
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BHW Resident Surgeon
Posts: 25351
Location: Bastrop, Texas | How long can diesel be stored in a tank? |
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The Advice Guru
Posts: 6419
| TXBO - 2015-12-19 4:43 PM
Tdove - 2015-12-19 4:35 PM I waxed the floor with you sir. Right..... And OPEC has nothing to do with crude prices.
To add one thing no one has discussed
The sanctions have just been lifted off of Iraq so now they can produce and sell as much oil as they want.
What I have heard is at the last OPEC meeting, Iraq is the reason they did not slow their taps down, as this is Iraq's way of flipping the bird to USA.
I have also heard OPEC can sustain at 30/barrel whereas USA and Canada need 40/barrel to break even.
In Canada most of our large oil companies are on contract, so they haven't been affected yet as till jan 2016 they were still making 70/barrel (est). We will see more layoffs in the new year as the new contracts will be in place so they will be loosing approx 40/barrel revenue compared to 2015.
Sadly this will end the little mom and pop companies, the global companies may survive.
For someone who said this doesn't effect the majority of people, you will actually see it this year.
Donations have shrivelled up (to hospitals, galas, barrel races)
Horse prices have decreased (nobody wants to spend due to the uncertainty)
Government makes a lot of money off of oil, so if they are not getting their share, they will be making cuts somewhere
Our federal government has already tightened up mortgage lending.
In Alberta suicide rate has increased by 30 percent
Theft has increased substantially.
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